Author: admin

FROM THE DESK OF EDITOR IN CHIEF
MEHER KASHIF YOUNAS

The government evidently be moving a tightrope in achieving its revenue growth targets by keeping with its 5 percent GDP without commencing much delayed reforms in FBR; the earlier the better. The delay in reforms implementation will not only make it an uphill task to collect the projected numbers but also will land government in hot waters.

Besides, similar to last year, non-tax revenue estimates rely heavily on the collection of petroleum levy (PDL) and Gas infrastructure development CESS (GIDC), which did not turn out to be the case on the back of multiyear high oil prices and will continue to pose a challenge for government this year as well.

Following a robust fiscal 2022, where growth exceeded expectations, the opportunity cost was ominously too big to bear for the government on a sustainable basis. The revenues expected growth brought with it yawning twin deficits, weakened Pak Rupee, dwindling forex reserves and double-digit inflation.

Going into fiscal 2023, the government expects the growth momentum to slightly ease off as domestic demand is curbed but bets on improved management of the twin deficits and increased revenue streams to keep it sustainable in the near term.

From the desk of editor in chief, Meher Kashif Younis:

What is an entertainment industry? Entertainment is a forum of activity that holds the attention and interest of an audience or gives pleasure or delight. It can be an idea or a task but is more likely to be one of the activities or events that have developed over thousands of yeas specifically for the purpose of keeping an audiences’ attention irrespective of its duration being long or short.

The entertainment industry, informally known as show business or show Bizz, is part of the tertiary sector of the economy and includes many sub-industries devoted to any sort of entertainment to the people. As such, it applies to every aspect of entertainment including cinema, television, radio, theatre and music inclusive of the public and private sectors. The pandemic of Corona Virus has virtually brought the world to its knees and most of it, Pakistan included, to an economic standstill. It is an undeniable fact that the industries and corporations have suffered and continue to suffer a big blow.

As for the entertainment industry is concerned, production houses have suspended a major part of their films shooting schedule, which has quite obviously has directly affected daily workers more than other categories of employees associated with it.

Many people in the entertainment industry including electricians, carpenters, hair and makeup artists and stylists are paid hurly and work on a project to project basis; they are the one who have been hit the hardest. On an average, a decent sent comprises about 200 staff members and out of them around 150 or so are hired on daily wages basis. Their livelihood is now facing a huge threat due to pandemic which somehow continues to persist; in fact, many freelancers have seen their earnings disappear in this air overnight.

Unfortunately, even the best production houses that successfully operate in Pakistan do not offer any sort of unemployment insurance or any assistance to their daily workers. Internationally, associations have come forward with systematic ways to help the artists and workers in the entertainment industry.

The question which needs to be pondered upon is how we can have a systematic and consistent system of distribution of income among the local artists and their families, who have served the entertainment industry for many years together and know no other way of livelihood and source of income. There are people who have been impacted due to the situations like the current times or those who have lost their lives and have their families of dependents in the wilderness behind. We have, more than often, seen heartbreaking images of our aging or ailing artists, suffering away once their heydays are over. This should not be allowed to happen.

A consistent flow of income in times of health and economic crisis will certainly go a long way. We can learn in this regard from other countries also if we want to. We hope that someone is taking note of the prevailing situation and concerned representative bodies will come forward because we are as good as the people we work with.

Future of Pakistani film industry & need for an identity Not since a steady stream of films began populating our theatres has the Pakistani film industry has been at a more crucial stage. With Indian films banned in the country since the two neighboring nuclear countries nearly went to war in February 2019, there is an opportunity for Pakistani films to step up and prove their might and hopefully fill the void left behind by Bollywood big weights. Undoubtedly, this a daunting task, given the Indian movies were released throughout the year and Pakistani movies usually mounting the silver screens in the cinema houses throughout the county in bulk on auspicious occasions of Eid ul Fitr and Eid ul Azha holidays.

Owning a cinema houses has over the years due to varying reasons has become quite a risky business and demolishing of the cinema houses or turning them into some other business houses has been going on though lately there has been a tend to build modern type cinemas with limited capacity and people are being attracted to going there for relaxation and entertainment ahead of the COVID-19 pandemic. Their business will take some time to be revived and restored once Corona Virus threat minimizes to a great extent. As for the event management business is concerned, it is flourishing and booming with huge demand in Pakistan.

With the increasing status-conscious consumers’ demand, event management business is quite surprisingly booming in the major cities of Pakistan with their attractive packages, as modern citizens feel the need to go out more often, throw big birthdays and farewell parties, bridal and baby shows in big halls in shopping malls, restaurants and hotels. Over the past couple of years, the event management has witnessed huge growth in the country where event planning is becoming a lucrative career path for all particularly the youngsters. According to the young even organizers, events decorating and catering business is rapidly becoming an expanding industry and such services cater to all sorts of events from weddings to birthdays to corporate events.

For making memories well-cherished and remembered throughout the life time, the people are gradually becoming eager and enthusiastic to spend a certain amount of money in order to make their events successful, well-organized and blissful, a young event management and decorator and a young entrepreneur said on being contacted.

There are many wedding planners in Lahore, Islamabad, Karachi and elsewhere in big cities or even otherwise who work as a team, these event organizers use different backgrounds, colors, fabrics and themes in a colorful manner so as to give a unique and aesthetic touch to the entire event. Apart from decoration they eve arrange for the power supplies, weather management, food and decoration of stages where marriages rituals take place. Another event management, decorating and catering specialist one being approached said that event management is a career full of opportunities for creative activities, it is a form of advertising which is quite glamourous and thrilling to say The event organizer is also expected not just ensuring provision of good and delicious food but also know how to make the event attractive to the maximum extent possible.

Employers who hire event planners and organizers include resorts, corporations, government agencies, sports clubs, trade show management firms, political, social and religious parties, associations and organizations, hotels, convention centers among others. Social media also has a massive impact on the events industry due to details being updated and published for events for increasing individual awareness about the forthcoming events. Both the film industry and the event management in Pakistan have a bright future ahead as young, talented and intelligent people are all set to enter these fields in coming days, weeks, years and decades overcoming the problems and difficulties facing them every now and then to say the least.

From the desk of, Meher Kashif Younis:

Of all the industries all over the world, Aviation Industry has been hit the hardest by the pandemic of COVID-19 which emerged in China in December 2019 and then crossed its borders in February/March 2020 and invaded and attacked almost every country causing heavy losses of precious human lives and forcing the governments to take extra-ordinary measures like lockdown and closing their skies for incoming and outgoing flights.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA), a global trade group representing most of the world’s major airlines and cargo carriers, is on record to have said only recently that it does not expect the air travel industry to recover from the hit dealt to it by the Corona Virus pandemic before 2024.

The timeline, which defined “recovery” as a return to 2019 levels of air traffic and revenue, was the direst yet offered by the group, which had previously forecast a bounce back by the airlines by 2023.

“Ahead of any vaccine, it really does depend on how well the countries around the globe manage to control the virus”, IATA’s chief economist Brian Pearce said in a briefing in September 2020. “That is clearly going to be an issue with the recovery. What we have not seen is the sort of progress which is needed”.

The bulk of the problem is that the flying public has relatively little interest in flying. “While pent-up demand exists for visiting friends and relatives and leisure travel, consumer confidence is weak in the face of concerns over job security and rising unemployment, as well as risks of catching COVID19” ATA said in a statement.

Moreover, corporate travel was also staying down as the companies seek to cut costs and adjust to remote meetings will hamper a recovery, IATA said. Even as the economy picks back, business travel may be slow to return comparatively.

“Corporate travel budgets are expected to be very constrained as the companies continue to be under financial pressure even as the economy improves”, IATA said. The group said surveys indicate that the link between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and business travel has frayed, as video conferences makes the in-person meetings less necessary.

IATA’s revised timeline as such represents the culmination of a new wave of pessimism from airlines about the travel recovery. In the early months of the pandemic, most carriers had suggested a two to three-year time frame for recovery.

One exception, however, was Southwest CEO Grace Kelly who offered a five-year time frame in April 2020 and said “Based on history, I a recessionary environment, it is a long period for businesses”.

Aviation Industry analysts, too, were quick to predict long road to recovery. Travel demand fell out in Asia region in mid-to-late January and cratered in the rest of the world n mid-March whereas the analysts had envisioned only in January 2020 a V-shaped recovery if the impact spread to US and Europe markets but by April that hope had evaporated in the thin air.

“We are growing increasingly convinced that industry recovery to 2019 levels of output will be a multi-year affair” analyst Jamie Baker of JP Morgan had written in early April 2020.

Analyst Helane Becker of Cowen had in a lengthy report in first half of April 2020 had said “We expect it to take 2 to 5 years to recovery to 2019 levels, our working assumption is 2021 revenues will be back to 2016 levels. Unfortunately, return to work might not mean immediate return to air. It is highly likely that any recovery won’t start until the fourth quarter at the earliest and then continue slowly through 2021 and into 2022.

Other leading analysts including Jamie Baker of JP Morgan and Andrew Didora of Bank of America also continued to suggest a similar timeline pointing to 3-4-year targets in their recent research notes.

And now, the airlines themselves agree: The road back to “normal” won’t just be rough but also long one.

According to latest S&P Global Ratings, global air passenger traffic will decline more than previously estimated in 2020 as the pandemic of Corona Virus continues to ravage travel demand, raising pressure on the credit equity of the airline’s companies. The rating agency now expected global air traffic to sink by as much as 60 % to 70% year on year basis in 2020, much steeper than the decline of 50% to 55% projected earlier in May 2020. Air passenger traffic is forecast to tumble 30 % to 40 in 2021, compared with 2019, a revision from the prior estimate of a 25 % to 30 % drop.

S & P Global Ratings has said “The more negative global outlook increases on all airlines’ credit quality, and ratings are likely to remain under pressure until a vaccine or effective treatment is widely available or until airlines find a more a more widely accepted way to operate under a ‘new normal’. Most airlines rated by S&P Global Ratings have been hit with multiple notch downgrades since the start of the global pandemic. Nearly all rated airlines are also on negative outlook or CreditWatch outlook. Global air traffic faces a more gradual recovery path to pre-pandemic levels by 2024 with domestic travel rebounding at a faster pace than international travel due to more severe border restrictions by some countries.

The weakening global macroeconomic outlook will also impact both consumer and business spending power on all but essential travel, on revues side airline passenger yields to be weaker than pre-pandemic levels due to lower business travelers and ticket price discounts implemented by airlines to attract passengers, cost reductions, fleet right-sizing and liquidity preservation will be critical measures to partly counterbalance the depressed demand for air travel, the rating agency said.

IATA, the trade association for the world’s airlines, has noted that in the six months following 9/11 attacks, previously considered to be the most severe aviation crisis, air passenger traffic measured in revenue passenger kilometers declined by 12 %, far less than the 60%-70% forecasted for 2020. The rating agency report went on to dilate on recovery hindered by international travel restrictions and said the 2020 calendar year forecasts now include more or less actual results, during which global air passenger traffic was largely grounded for almost three months, industry-wise revenue passengerkilometer had fell 94% in April, 91 % in May and 87 % in June on yea on year basis, domestic travel proved more resilient and it is expected to recover more quickly than international travel, as countries have initially started to ease travel restrictions within their home markets, due to pent-up demand for visiting friends and relatives, although some recovery was expected in international travel in July and August but this was limited particularly to travel corridors where travel restrictions were generally lifted. However, there are numerous notable exceptions about some countries were adding back restrictions on certain countries with rising infection rates including quarantine rules or testing for the virus.

Intercontinental traffic was most likely to take some time to reopen given more severe border restrictions. The weakening global macroeconomic outlook will also impact both consumer and business spending power on all but essential travel. Furthermore, it has also been reported that some countries are set to cut down the number of short haul flights available for environmental reasons for example, where there is a reasonable alternative rail service) particularly where generous government packages have been awarded to legacy carriers. The international aviation analysts have opined that top four airlines are going to survive COVID-19 crisis no matter.

Airlines around the world are facing the most severe crisis in the aviation history. Some airlines have already collapsed and more are on their way to bankruptcy. However, there are some airlines much stronger headed extremely wealthy owing to wealthy owners and well purposed than others to survive the crisis.

Here is the list of top four airlines that are well-equipped to survive the pandemic crisis and keep flying. There are also some other airlines which may not make it if the crisis prolongs for years. Chinese Government Airlines: Air China, Chinese Eastern and Chinese Southern. These three Chinese government owned airlines combinedly transported close to 300 million passengers in 2019. They are national strategic assets to China and play a significant role in expanding the influence of China all over the world. The Chinese government has trillions of dollars in deployable capital and virtually unlimited options and reasons to keep these airlines flying. Even it takes several decades of operations at losses, the owners of these airlines are well-determined to keep them flying. QATAR AIRWAYS: Yet another Gulf carrier owned by the government of Qatar is a strategic asset to the country. During the blockade imposed by Qatar’s neighbors several years ago, Qatar Airways singlehandedly saved the country from starvation flying in essentials including milk and meat from Turkey and Iran as well as dairy cows from far off lands such as New Zealand.

Qatar Airways is owned by the Qatari government which has over $ 350 million in known assets worldwide. The airline is headed by a shrewd businessman Akbar Al Baker who flew aircraft even during the peak of pandemic crisis. A diverse fleet, superior product and access to virtually unlimited funds make Qatar Airways one of the most resilient airline to survive the crisis.

ETIHAD AIRWAYS: Etihad Airwavs is the flying carrier of the United Arab Amirates (UAE) owned by Abu Dhabi royal family. The airline has been in steep losses for the last several years partly to a series of bad investments made by the previous Chief Operating Officer (CEO).

Etihad Airways was a recovery oath until COVID-19 hit the air travel demand.

Abu Dhabi royal family owns Sovereign Wealth Fund and Investment Companies Abu Dhabi Investment Company and Mubadal which assets under managing with over one trillion dollars. Other significant assets include ADNOC the oil company owned by the Abu Dhabi government Etihad Airways virtually has access to any amount of money it needs. Etihad Airways is also a strategic asset to Abu Dhabi. Hence no matter, Etihad Airways will keep flying. Will it fly with empty seats for 10 years probably yes, if it makes sense to its owners?

SINGAPORE AIRLINE: Singapore Airline is owned by Singapore government in the form of majority of shares and is a vital link to the Asian business hub. Without a native airline to provide travel link to the country, the economy will collapse which made Singapore government to take a “whatever it takes” approach to support the airline. The government poured in over $ 8 billion in June 2020 to improve the liquidity of the airlines.

The absolute necessity of the airlines survival to its owners makes it an airline capable of suffering losses for decades but still have access to any amount of capital to continue its operations. Here are seven airlines of different countries around the world which are not on the list of airlines which will keep flying no matter what.

Emirates, US Carrier, Lufthansa, Air France, KLM, SAS and Alitalia.

Written by Muhammad Zahid Rifat

From the desk of editor in chief, Meher Kashif Younis: 

Historically speaking, traditions have it that the paper was first used in AD 105 by Ta’ai Lun, a eunuch attached to the Eastern Han Court of Chinese Emperor Ho Ti. The material used was most probably the bark of the mulberry tree, and the paper was made on a mold of bamboo strips.

The earliest known paper still in existence was made from rags about AD 150, for approximately 500 years the art of papermaking somehow remained confined to China. But in AD 610 it was introduced in Japan and into the Central Asia about AD 750 as a result of the attack of the Arabs to China. Paper made its appearance in Egypt about AD 800 but was manufactured there until AD 900.

The use of paper was introduced in Europe by the Moors, and the first papermaking mill was established in Spain about AD 1150 and the man behind was Tariq bin Ziyad.

In succeeding centuries, the craft spread to most of the European countries. The introduction of movable type about the middle of the 15th century made book printing practical and greatly stimulated papermaking. The first paper mill in England was established in 1495, and the such mill was set up in America in 1690.

The increasing use of paper in the 17th and 18th centuries created shortage of rags, which were the only satisfactory raw material known to the European papermakers. As a result, many attempts were made to devise substitutes, but none was commercially satisfactory. At the same time attempts were also made to reduce the cost of paper by developing a machine to supplement the hand-molding process in paper manufacturing. The first practical machine was as such made in 1798 by the French inventor Nicholas Louis Robert. His machine was then improved by the British stationers and Brothers Henry Fourdrinier and Sealy Fourdrinier, who I 1803 produced the first of the machines that bore their name.

The solution of the problem of making paper from some cheap raw material was achieved by with the introduction of the ground wood process of pulp making in about 1840 and the first of the chemical pulp processes approximately ten years later.

With the discovery of America by Christopher Columbus, the technology was then moved to the US where it flourished to its peak and it became the leading country in paper industry not only in its manufacturing but also in its consumption i.e. 350 kg paper per capita consumption presently, whereas in the case of Pakistan, the rate of consumption is only about 4 kg paper per capita consumption.

Paper industry in Pakistan is not among the prime industries of the country and is in developing stage yet so to say. Consumption of paper in Pakistan is in far access of the domestic production capacity. And, obviously the local demand in view of this met through imports. Pakistan’s imports of paper and paper board, articles of pulp and board amounted to US $ 506.34 million in 2019 according to data based on international trade figures.

In 1947 when Pakistan came into existence, there was not a single plant to manufacture paper in the country. All the requirement for the paper in the country as such had to be met through imports.

Pakistan Industrial Development Corporation (PIDC) was established for the establishment of different industries including paper mill in the public sector. PIDC established the first paper mill in Chandargona in East Pakistan followed by a high-grade papers Adamjee Paper and Board Mill in NWFP and a newsprint mill at Khulna in East Pakistan in 1959. However, Adamjee Paper and Board closed down its operation later on.

With the separation of East Pakistan in 1971 and becoming Bangladesh, a serious shortage of writing and printing paper as well as newsprint was created in remainder Pakistan i.e. West Pakistan, as the supplies of these products were completely cut off from Bangladesh.

Over the years, number of units were established producing various grades of papers using local and imported raw materials. Unfortunately, due to poor planning in the 1980s and 1990s, many units were closed down due to various reasons.

Though exact number is not known, there are around 100 units in Pakistan in the organized and unorganized sectors. These units produce writing and printing paper, wrapping and packing paper, white duplex coated, uncoated board, chip board and other boards.

The position with regard to newsprint is, however, altogether different as no newsprint plant has so far been established in Pakistan with the result that the country imports all its requirements of newsprint from abroad. The demand for newsprint has enormously increased following mushroom growth of newspapers, magazines and journals in all part of the country.

In later part of 1970s, Punjab Industrial Board (PIDB), headquartered in Lahore, planned to establish a sugarcane bagasse-based newsprint mill in Toba Tek Singh, Punjab. The project remained in the planning and approval process in Islamabad for many years. The project finally was Okayed at the appropriate level in Islamabad after more than a decade and newsprint element was dropped and it was reduced to ordinary paper making mill only. The foundation stone of the paper mill so approved was laid by General Muhammad Zia ul Haq prior to his tragic demise in plane crash in August 1988 but the project construction was shelved without making any feasible progress as the PIDB itself was disbanded in the subsequent subsequently. So, the country continues to import newsprint from foreign countries. A number of factors are directly and indirectly responsible for the tribulations of Pulp and Paper industry and its thriving in Pakistan.

Paper and pulp industry in Pakistan face a number of problems and the climate risks it faces is ontop of the list.

Paper and pulp industry are a multi-faceted sector that provides quite a wide range of raw material, diverse process stage and many different products. Pulp may be created from virgin fiber e.g. wood pulp or wheat straw by mechanical or chemical means or it may be produced by the repulping of recycled paper, Paper is effectively a sheet of fibers with and number of added chemicals, manufacturing of pulp and paper requires a large amount of process water and energy in the form of steam and electric power. Consequently, the issues associated with pulp and paper production are emissions to water, emissions to air and energy consumption.

A paper mill may simply purchase pulp made elsewhere but in integrated pulp and paper risks the activities of pulp and paper making if undertaken onthe same site.

Among other factors, low forest cover, old machinery in most of the existing units and shortage raw materials are discussed briefly here.

The condition of forest covers | Pakistan is derisory which just about 5.2 per centis only and the canopy cover counseled for any country is supposed to be greater than 20 per cent. Majority of these forests lie in the important catchment areas which, in any circumstances, cannot be felled. As such, the only trees available for paper [production are from agro-forestry.

Of all the factors responsible for the depletion of forest cover is the major one and that is 1.5 per cent. According to a report of IUCN if this rate of deforestation persisted then we will be having no forest cover after 16 years.

Population, as itis said, is one of the main rationales behind the depletion of forest cover. If itis so then why forest cover in China and India is not dwindling instead of escalating?

Afforestation can be helpful in upsurge the forest cover in the country. Yet again we are lacking two important resources, explicitly water and land, which are essential in this regard. Majority of the country is in Sub-Tropical Ecoregion where land is of Xerosere nature and drought prevails for most part of the year. And rest of the major part i.e. 6.2 million hectare which is about one-third area of the country, is facing the problem of salinity and waterlogging.

The planting of salt tolerant trees like Eucalyptus is the best step in this direction. Since it is a salt tolerant species even it can tolerate a pH of 10 so it will not only help in solving the problem but also it is one of the best species used in the production of paper.

Presently around 100 pulp and paper mills which are working in Pakistan cannot go through with the demands of the country. Of these, more than 70 per cent are located in Punjab province, 20 per cent in Sindh province and 10 per cent in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Besides the machines are small and old having very low efficiency in most cases. The operating efficiency is just about 60 per cent.

In the case of US, if the operating efficiency of any machine comes below than 80 per cent, it is just closed down. The reason behind this is the proportionality between the cost and efficiency of the machine. Greater the efficiency of the machine, lower will be the costs and vice versa.

Written by: M.Z. RIFAT

From the desk of editor in chief, Meher Kashif Younis:

When it comes to energy resources, there is always the question of sustain ability. It is important that resources provide enough energy to meet our needs to heat our houses, power our cities, and run our cars. However, it is also important to consider how these resources can be used long term. Some resources will practically never run out. These are known as renewable resources. Renewable resources also produce clean energy, meaning less pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to climate change.

Solar energy can play a key role in creating a clean, reliable energy future. The benefits are many and varied. Consumers who use these technologies will benefit directly and immediately. Using solar energy produces immediate environmental benefits.

Electricity is often produced by burning fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural gas. The combustion of these fuels releases a variety of pollutants into the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxide (NOx), which create acid rain and smog. Carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels is a significant component of greenhouse gas emissions. These emissions could significantly alter the world’s environment and lead to the global warming predicted by most atmospheric scientists.

The combustion of fossil fuels releases more than 6 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere each year. The United States alone is responsible for 23 percent of these emissions. Clean energy sources, such as solar energy, can help meet rising energy demands while reducing pollution and preventing damage to the environment and public health at the same time.

Solar energy is an excellent alternative to fossil fuels for many reasons

It is clean energy. Even when the emissions related to solar cell manufacturing are counted, photovoltaic generation produces less than 15 percent of the carbon.

HOW SOLAR POWER SYSTEM WORKS!

dioxide from a conventional coalfired power plant. Using solar energy to replace the use of traditional fossil fuel energy sources can prevent the release of pollutants into the atmosphere.

• Using solar energy to supply a million homes with energy would reduce CO2 emissions by 4.3 million tons per year, the equivalent of removing 850,000 cars from the road.

• Solar energy uses fewer natural resources than conventional energy sources. Using energy from sunlight can replace the use of stored energy in natural resources such as petroleum, natural gas, and coal. Energy industry researchers estimate that the amount of land required for photovoltaic (PV) cells to produce enough electricity to meet all U.S. power needs is less than 60,000 square kilometers, or roughly 20 percent of the area of Arizona.

• Solar energy is a renewable resource. Some scientists and industry experts estimate that renewable energy sources, such as solar, can supply up to half of the world’s energy demand in the next 50 years, even as energy needs continue to grow.

Solar is the Latin word for sun a powerful source of energy that can be used to heat, cool, and light our homes and businesses. That’s because more energy from the sun falls on the earth in one hour than is used by everyone in the world in one year. A variety of technologies convert sunlight to usable energy for buildings. The most commonly used solar technologies for homes and businesses are solar water heating, passive solar design for space heating and cooling, and solar photovoltaic for electricity.

Businesses and industry also use these technologies to diversify their energy sources, improve efficiency, and save money. Solar photovoltaic and concentrating solar power technologies are also being used by developers and utilities to produce electricity on a massive scale to power cities and small towns.

Searching for the right method of using renewable resources is a task that is growing ever more important as the Earth’s supply of nonrenewable resources continues to dwindle. Converting to renewable energy will not only better sustain the world’s rapidly growing population, but it will also provide a cleaner, healthier environment for the generations to come.

From the desk of editor in chief,

Meher Kashif Younis:

“Declining plant growth is linked to decreasing air moisture tied to global warming Scientists say the greening effects from rising levels of car bon dioxide might be over”. NASA

Earth is losing its greenery due to many factors including an increasing number of houses and agriculture. We need to take steps to increase forest cover to restore nature. There is a need to balance the development and restoration of the environment.

The world is gradually becoming less green, scientists have found. Plant growth is declining all over the planet, and new research links the phenomenon to decreasing moisture in the air a consequence of climate change. Since then, more than half of the world’s vegetated landscapes have been experiencing a “browning” trend, or decrease in plant growth, according to my research.

Climate records suggest the declines are associated with a metric known as vapor pressure deficit that’s the difference between the amounts of moisture the air actually holds versus the maximum amount of moisture it could be holding. A high deficit is sometimes referred to as an atmospheric drought.

Since the late 1990s, more than half of the world’s vegetated landscapes have experienced a growing deficit, or drying pattern.

The planet’s climate would also be drastically altered in the short and long term. Trees mediate the water cycle by acting as biological pumps: they suck water from the soil and deposit it into the atmosphere by transforming it from liquid to vapor. By doing this, forests contribute to cloud formation and precipitation. Trees also prevent flooding by trapping water rather than letting it rush into lakes and rivers, and by buffering coastal communities from storm surges. They keep soil in place that would otherwise wash away in rain, and their root structures help microbial communities thrive.

Without trees, formerly forested areas would become drier and more prone to extreme droughts. When rain did come, flooding would be disastrous. Massive erosion would impact oceans, smothering coral reefs and other marine habitats. Islands stripped of trees would lose their barriers to the ocean, and many would be washed away. “Removing trees means losing huge amounts of land to the ocean,” says Thomas Crowther, a global systems ecologist at ETH Zurich in Switzerland and lead author of the 2015 Nature study.

In addition to mediating the water cycle, trees have a localized cooling effect. They provide shade that maintains soil temperatures and, as the darkest thing in the landscape, they absorb heat rather than reflect it. In the process of evapotranspiration, they also channel energy from solar radiation into converting liquid water into vapor. With all of those cooling services lost, most places where trees formerly stood would immediately become warmer. In another study, Prevedello and his colleagues found that complete removal of a 25 sq. km patch of forest caused local annual temperatures to increase by at least 2C in tropical areas and 1C in temperate areas. Researchers have also found similar temperature differences when comparing forested and open areas.

On a global scale, trees combat warming caused by climate change by storing carbon in their trunks and removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Deforestation already accounts for 13% of total global carbon emissions, according to an IPCC report published in August, while land use change in general accounts for 23% of emissions. With all trees on the planet wiped out, previously forested ecosystems “would become only a source of emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, rather than a sink,” says Paolo D’Odorico, a professor of environmental science at the University of California, Berkeley. Over time, Crowther predicts that we would see the release of 450 gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere more than doubling the amount that humans have already contributed. For a while, this effect grasses. But while smaller plants capture carbon at a faster rate than trees, they also release it more rapidly. Eventually perhaps over a few decades these plants would no longer be able to head off the coming warming. “The timeline depends on where you are, since decomposition is much faster in the tropics than the Arctic,” D’Odorico says. “But once carbon dioxide is in the atmosphere, it doesn’t matter if it’s coming from here or from there.”

Humanity’s suffering would begin well before catastrophic global warming took place, however. The increased heat, disruption to the water cycle and loss of shade would take a deadly toll on billions of people and livestock. Poverty and death would also descend on many of the 1.6 billion people who currently rely directly on forests for their livelihoods, including for harvesting food and medicine. More people still would find themselves unable to cook or heat their homes, given the lack of firewood. Around the world, those whether as loggers or paper-makers, fruit growers or carpenters would suddenly be jobless, devastating the global economy. The timber sector alone provides employment to 13.2 million people and generates $600bn (£500bn) each year, according to the World Bank.

Agricultural systems would likewise swing wildly out of whack. Shade crops like coffee would drastically decline, as would ones that rely on tree-dwelling pollinators. Due to temperature and precipitation fluctuations, places that formerly produced crops would suddenly fail while others that were previously unsuitable might become desirable. Over time, though, soils everywhere would become depleted, requiring significant amounts of fertilizer for crops to survive. Further heating would eventually render most places uncultivatable and unlivable.

On top of these devastating changes would be health impacts. Trees clean the air by absorbing pollutants and trapping particulate matter on their leaves, branches and trunks. Researchers from the US Forest Service have calculated that trees in the US alone remove 17.4 million tons of air pollution each year, a service valued at $6.8bn (£5.6bn). At least 850 lives are saved as a result and at least 670,000 cases of acute respiratory issues are avoided.

All told, human beings would struggle to survive in a world without trees. Urbanized, Western lifestyles would quickly become a thing of the past and many of us would die from starvation, heat, drought and floods. Surviving communities, Lowman believes, would likely be those that have retained traditional knowledge about how to live in treeless environments, such as Australia’s Aboriginals. Crowther, on the other hand, suspects that life would only persist in a Mars like colony, enabled by technology and entirely divorced from the existence we have always known.

“Even if we could live in a world without trees, who would want to?” Crowther says. “This planet is unique from everything else we currently know in the universe because of this unexplainable thing called life, and without trees, almost all of it would just be screwed.” As the population is continuously increasing, there is a growing need for housing, which is resulting in the cutting of trees. WHAT ARE THE MAIN CAUSES OF DEFORESTATION?

1. INDUSTRIAL AGRICULTURE

Look no further than your dinner plate, because industrial agriculture accounts for around 85% of deforestation worldwide. While this can mostly be attributed to meat production (beef in particular), soy and palm oil plantations follow closely behind as causes for deforestation. But before you shun the tofu, let’s take a closer look: meat producers clear vast swaths of forest to graze their livestock, but beef cows don’t just eat grass in fact, 80% of all soybeans grown go directly into feed for cattle, and poultry. Palm oil, an ingredient that’s as ubiquitous as it is destructive, is a major contributor to deforestation in countries like Indonesia and Malaysia.

2. TIMBER

LOGGING Around 380,000 hectares of forest are cut every year to meet the incredible global demand for wood and wood products, accounting for around 60% of degradation. Another 25% of forest is degraded for fuelwood and charcoal. From clear cuts to massive logging roads providing access to previously untouched areas, these degraded forests are much more vulnerable to conversion to other land uses like mining, agriculture, and settlement.

3. MINING

Thanks to an ever-increasing demand for minerals, mining in tropical forests is on the rise. And because large-scale mining is an intensive, industrial undertaking, it necessitates the development of massive infrastructure, which only amplifies the degradation.

4. EXPANSION AND INFRASTRUCTURE

As the tide of human population growth washes over the land, large swaths of forest get cleared to make way for the expansion of cities and settlements. And with these settlements come even more infrastructure and expansion.

5. CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change is a leading cause of deforestation. Extreme weather events like wildfires (which are responsible for an estimated 10% of degradation annually), droughts, and storm surges destroy millions of hectares of forest every year and their intensity is only increasing with global warming. But the trouble doesn’t stop there: after the last fire has been put out, the gates open wide to accommodate pests, diseases, and invasive species that make themselves at home, decimating whatever remains.

From the desk of editor in chief,
Meher Kashif Younis:

How happy are people today? Were people happier in the past? How satisfied with their lives are people in different societies? And how do our living conditions affect all of this? These are difficult questions to answer; but they are questions that undoubtedly matter for each of us personally. Indeed, today, life satisfaction and happiness are central research areas in the social sciences, including in ‘mainstream’ economics. (Ansar Malook Bhatti)

Social scientists often recommend that measures of subjective well-being should augment the usual measures of economic prosperity, such as GDP per capita. 1 But how can happiness be measured? Are there reliable comparisons of happiness across time and space that can give us clues regarding what makes people declare themselves ‘happy’?

In this entry, we discuss the data and empirical evidence that might answer these questions. Our focus here will be on survey-based measures of self-reported happiness and life satisfaction. Here is a preview of what the data reveals.

1- Surveys asking people about life satisfaction and happiness do measure subjective well-being with reasonable accuracy.

2- Life satisfaction and happiness vary widely both within and among countries. It only takes a glimpse at the data to see that people are distributed along a wide spectrum of happiness levels.

3- Richer people tend to say they are happier than poorer people; richer countries tend to have higher average happiness levels; and across time, most countries that have experienced sustained economic growth have seen increasing happiness levels. So the evidence suggests that income and life satisfaction tend to go together (which still doesn’t mean they are one and the same).

4- Important life events such as marriage or divorce do affect our happiness, but have surprisingly little long-term impact. The evidence suggests that people tend to adapt to changes.

The World Happiness Report is a well known source of cross-country data and research on self-reported life satisfaction. The map here shows, country by country, the ‘happiness scores’ published this report.

The underlying source of the happiness scores in the World Happiness Report is the Gallup World Polla set of nationally representative surveys undertaken in more than 160 countries in over 140 languages. The main life evaluation question asked in the poll is: “Please imagine a ladder, with steps numbered from 0 at the bottom to 10 at the top. The top of the ladder represents the best possible life for you and the bottom of the ladder represents the worst possible life for you. On which step of the ladder would you say you personally feel you stand at this time?”

There are large differences across countries. According to 2016 figures, Nordic countries top the ranking: Finland, Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands and Iceland have the highest scores (all with averages above 7). In the same year, the lowest national scores correspond to Central African Republic, South Sudan, Tanzania, Rwanda and Haiti (all with average scores below 3.5).

Findings from the World Value Survey

In addition to the Gallup World Poll the World Value Survey also provides cross country data on self-reported life satisfaction. These are the longest available time series of cross-country happiness estimates that include non-European nations.

The World Value Survey collects data from a series of representative national surveys covering almost 100 countries, with the earliest estimates dating back to 1981. In these surveys, respondents are asked: “Taking all things together, would you say you are (i) Very happy, (ii) Rather happy, (iii) Not very happy or (iv) Not at all happy. This visualization plots the share of people answering they are Very happy or Rather happy.

In the majority of countries, the trend is positive: In 49 of the 69 countries with data. from two or more surveys, the most recent observation is higher than the earliest. In some cases, the improvement has been very large; in Zimbabwe, for example, the share of people who reported being ‘very happy’ or ‘rather happy’ went from 56.4% in 2004 to 82.1% in 2014.

More than averages the distribution of life satisfaction scores

Most of the studies comparing happiness and life satisfaction among countries focus on averages. However, distributional differences are also important.

Life satisfaction is often reported on a scale from 0 to 10, with 10 representing the highest possible level of satisfaction. This is the so called ‘Cantril Ladder’. This visualization shows how responses are distributed across steps in this ladder. In each case, the height of bars is proportional to the fraction of answers at each score. Each differently-colored distribution refers to a world region; and for each region, we have overlaid the distribution for the entire world as a reference.

These plots show that in sub-Saharan Africa the region with the lowest average scores the distributions are consistently to the left of those in Europe. In economics lingo, we observe that the distribution of scores in European countries stochastically dominates the distribution in sub-Saharan Africa.

This means that the share of people who are ‘happy’ is lower in sub-Saharan Africa than in Western Europe, independently of which score in the ladder we use as a threshold to define ‘happy’. Similar comparisons can be made by contrasting other regions with high average scores (e.g. North America, Australia and New Zealand) against those with low average scores (e.g. South Asia).

Another important point to notice is that the distribution of self-reported life satisfaction in Latin America is high across the board it is consistently to the right of other regions with roughly comparable income levels, such as Central and Eastern Europe.

This is part of a broader pattern: Latin American countries tend to have a higher subjective well-being than other countries with comparable levels of economic development. As we will see in the section on social environment, culture and history matter for self-reported life satisfaction.

Mis-perceptions about others’ happiness

We tend to underestimate the average happiness of people around us. The visualization shown demonstrates this for countries around the world, using data from Ipsos’ Perils of Perception a cross-country survey asking people to guess what others in their country have answered to the happiness question in the World Value. Survey.

If respondents would have guessed the correct share, all observations would fall on the red 45-degree line. All countries are far below the 45-degree line. In other words, people in every country underestimated the self-reported happiness of others. The most extreme deviations are in Asia South Koreans think that 24% of people report being happy, when in reality 90% do. The highest guesses in Canada and Norway are 60%this is lower than the lowest actual value of self reported happiness in any country in the world.

Why do people get their guesses so wrong? It’s not as simple as brushing aside these numbers by saying they reflect differences in ‘actual’ vs. reported happiness.

One possible explanation is that people tend to misreport their own happiness, therefore the average guesses might be a correct indicator of true life satisfaction (and an incorrect indicator of reported life satisfaction). However, for this to be true, people would have to commonly misreport their own happiness while assuming that others do not misreport theirs.

And people are not bad at judging the well being of other people who they know: There is substantial evidence showing that ratings of one’s happiness made by friends correlate with one’s happiness, and that people are generally good at evaluating emotions from simply watching facial expressions.

An alternative explanation is that this mismatch is grounded in the well-established fact that people tend to be positive about themselves, but negative about other people they don’t know. It has been observed in other contexts that people can be optimistic about their own future, while at the same time being deeply pessimistic about the future of their nation or the world. We discuss this phenome non in more detail in our entry on optimism and pessimism, specifically in a section dedicated to individual optimism and social pessimism.

HAPPINESS INEQUALITY

The General Social Survey (GSS) in the US is a survey administered to a nationally representative sample of about 1,500 respondents each year since 1972, and is an important source of information on long-run trends of self-reported life satisfaction in the country.

Using this source, Stevenson and Wolfers (2008)6 show that while the national average has remained broadly constant, inequality in happiness has fallen substantially in the US in recent decades.

This is true both when we think about inequality in terms of the dispersion of answers, and also when we think about inequality in terms of gaps between demographic groups. They note that two-thirds of the black-white happiness gap has been eroded (although today white Americans remain happier on average, even after controlling for differences in education and income), and the gender happiness gap has disappeared entirely (women used to be slightly happier than men, but they are becoming less happy, and today there is no statistical difference once we control for other characteristics).

Why could it be that happiness inequality falls with rising income inequality? Part of the reason is that the growth of national income allows for the greater provision of public goods, which in turn tighten the distribution of subjective well-being. This can still be consistent with growing income inequality, since public goods such as better health affect incomes and well-being differently. Another possibility is that economic growth in rich countries has translated into a more diverse society in terms of cultural expressions (e.g. through the emergence of alternative lifestyles), which has allowed people to converge in happiness even if they diverge in incomes, tastes and consumption.

From the desk of editor in chief,
Meher Kashif Younis

Another turbulent week carried on dampening business sentiment following economic and political gusts in wake of delay in IMF talks resumption, were initially scheduled to be held around May 10th, consistently worsening trade deficit, nose-diving Pak rupee and building political uncertainty kept the broader sentiments under pressure.
Rupee kept on sliding to 192.5 against the US Dollar, staining a week on decline of 3.2 percent. Fears over rising petroleum, electricity prices as prerequisites of resumption of IMF 7th review and resultantly CPI readings have made the upcoming MPC meeting scheduled to be held on May 23rd even more interesting specifically given the vacant State Bank Governor’s position.
However, remittances, on the positive side, for the month of April 2022 shot up to the historic highest ever level recorded while ADB hinted at offering Pakistan financial support to the tune of USD 2.5 billion for the next fiscal year.
PBS data suggests that Large Scale Manufacturing Industries (LSMI) output has witnessed an increase of 8.2 percent during March. On yearly basis too, LSMI showed improvement with an increasing 26.6percent during March. LSMI Index stood at 153.7 during month compared to 121.4 SPLY. On yearly basis Provincial BOS, MoI and OCAC increased by 21.0 percent, 34.4 percent and 8.1 percent on yearly.
PML-N supremo, Nawaz Sharif called the top brass of the party to London this week to discuss key ongoing matters and to devise political strategy going forward but no clear direction has been communicated apart from the fact that government is not ready to call in early elections and are looking to complete the remaining term.
However, the key economic challenge that the incumbent government stands to face at this point in time is the revival of the IMF program. The IMF has continuously stressing reversal of petroleum, electricity subsidies and amnesties amongst roll back of other grants for the resumption of the 7th review however, with the political pressure building and macros slipping by the day, the government finds itself at a tricky spot.
Besides, all 3 friendly countries (China, UAE & KSA) have linked offering financial support to the revival of the IMF program that further has amplified its importance. Likewise, consistently worsening trade deficit which surged to $39.3 billion in 10th month of fiscal 2022, forex reserves declining to almost 2-year lows and weakening Pak Rupee, which slid by 3.2percent during outgoing week could not able to take any help.
Major data releases during the week included:

1. Remittances posted a record high of USD 3.1Bn in Apr’22 (↑12% YoY),
2. Trade deficit widened 65percent on year on during 10th month of fiscal 2022to USD 39.3Bn,
3. Auto sales declined to 22,370 units in Apr’22 (↓18% MoM),
4. Profit rates on National savings certificates increased by 140/96/144/250bps for Special Savings/Regular Income/Bahbood savings/Savings accounts respectively,
5. Total RDA inflows touched USD 4.2Bn in Apr’22,
6. Oil sales surged 32percent yearly in Apr’22 to 2.2Mn tons,
7. Cement sales slid 29 percent yearly in Apr to 3.5 million tons.